Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.5pp below current market price; market at 16% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -2.7% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑, DXY +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$5K
Liquidity
$16K
Bid / Ask
15% / 16%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
16%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692261
This event has 43 active outcome markets. Josh Hawley announce a presidential run befor: 19%, Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run be: 16%, J.B. Pritzker announce a Presidential run bef: 15%.
Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this