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Markets/Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2027?
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Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 2 signals
13%FIS
+1ppvs market 13%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +0.8pp above current market price; market at 13% may be underpriced with macro signals showing VIX +1.9% ↑, S&P -0.1% ↓, DXY -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroVIX +1.9% ↑, S&P -0.1% ↓, DXY -0.1% ↓
+3.2pp
HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]
-1.0pp
Live compute10:22 AM

Polymarket Price

13%YES
87%NO

Volume 24h

$8K

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

12% / 13%

Spread

0.60pp

Expert Signal

13%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2027?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692295

Outcome Markets53 markets

This event has 53 active outcome markets. Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run befo: 27%, Kim Kardashian announce a Presidential run be: 21%, Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before: 19%.

Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2027?

13%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 13%99%
Buy YES@ 13¢
Edge

+3.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 87¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+3.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this