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Markets/Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?
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Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 2 signals
17%FIS
+1ppvs market 16%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +0.6pp above current market price; market at 16% may be underpriced with macro signals showing VIX +2.8% ↑, S&P +0.3% ↑, DXY -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroVIX +2.8% ↑, S&P +0.3% ↑, DXY -0.1% ↓
+2.7pp
HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]
-1.0pp
Live compute10:49 AM

Polymarket Price

16%YES
84%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$18K

Bid / Ask

15% / 17%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

16%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692265

Outcome Markets44 markets

This event has 44 active outcome markets. Josh Hawley announce a presidential run befor: 19%, J.B. Pritzker announce a Presidential run bef: 17%, Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run bef: 16%.

Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?

16%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 16%99%
Buy YES@ 16¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 84¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this