Will Byron Donalds announce a presidential run before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +0.6pp above current market price; market at 10% may be underpriced with macro signals showing VIX +2.8% ↑, S&P +0.3% ↑, DXY -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$5K
Liquidity
$18K
Bid / Ask
9% / 10%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
10%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Byron Donalds announce a presidential run before 2027?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will Byron Donalds announce a presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692310
This event has 44 active outcome markets. Josh Hawley announce a presidential run befor: 19%, J.B. Pritzker announce a Presidential run bef: 16%, Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run bef: 16%.
Byron Donalds announce a presidential run before 2027?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+5.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this