Will Rand Paul announce a presidential run before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +0.8pp above current market price; market at 14% may be underpriced with macro signals showing VIX +1.9% ↑, S&P -0.1% ↓, DXY -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$14K
Liquidity
$23K
Bid / Ask
14% / 15%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
14%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Rand Paul announce a presidential run before 2027?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $14K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will Rand Paul announce a presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692324
This event has 53 active outcome markets. Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run befo: 27%, Kim Kardashian announce a Presidential run be: 21%, Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before: 19%.
Rand Paul announce a presidential run before 2027?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-3.4%
EV per $ wagered
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this